Polar Glow
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,136.84
1,893,978 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,023.16 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $9,468 15,774,487 BUX | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $3,253 5,419,897 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $2,047 3,409,985 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 13 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 10.0% | $1,679 2,796,962 BUX | 16.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $1,334 2,223,177 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 58.0% | $381 635,529 BUX | 21.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1,137 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 14.0%extraordinary 5.0%covert 81.0%