Midnight Fiesta
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$607.94
1,012,829 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $547.15 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.03%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $10.6K 17,662,981 BUX | 38.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $3,272 5,450,385 BUX | 29.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 13 | $1,679 2,796,962 BUX | 23.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.0% | $236 393,209 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 16.5% | $53.71 89,480 BUX | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 17.0% | $38.91 64,824 BUX | 1.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare | 40.0% | $4.54 7,563 BUX | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$6081,012,829 BUX$1,6792,796,962 BUX2.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $608 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.5%extraordinary 5.0%Covert 7.5%restricted 12.0%Rare 40.0%best hit $1,679 (2.76x)