Demonic Arsenal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$526.31
876,827 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $473.68 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
60.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 67 | $1,189 1,980,374 BUX | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $997 1,661,668 BUX | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 29 | $832 1,386,528 BUX | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 29 | $832 1,386,345 BUX | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 19.5% | $514 856,057 BUX | 21.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 30.0% | $421 701,435 BUX | 26.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 40.0% | $378 629,481 BUX | 31.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $526 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 24.5%covert 72.0%covert knife 3.5%