Mystical Mists
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$541.48
902,109 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $487.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.76%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totem (Tourmaline)other · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $10K 16,660,000 BUX | 51.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris)other · Special | 1 in 22 | $2,498 4,162,080 BUX | 23.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril)other · Classified | 1 in 20 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 10.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood)other · Classified | 10.0% | $411 684,000 BUX | 8.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Cube (Tungsten)other · Restricted | 13.0% | $199 331,534 BUX | 5.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Copper Kettleother · Restricted | 19.0% | $18.98 31,621 BUX | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Dust Vial (Diamond)other · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 0.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| Obelisk (Onyx)other · Industrial Grade | 26.0% | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $541 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 34.5%Special 4.5%Classified 15.0%Industrial Grade 46.0%best hit $999 (1.84x)