Santa's Sleuth
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$505.47
842,108 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $454.92 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
49.26%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiara (Tourmaline)other · Covert | 1 in 400 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Magic Wand (Uranium)other · Covert | 1 in 133 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Musical Flute (Mythril)other · Restricted | 19.0% | $599 997,934 BUX | 25.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 19.0% | $599 997,934 BUX | 25.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 30.0% | $375 624,750 BUX | 24.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| Coffee Mug (Sapphire)other · Industrial Grade | 31.0% | $130 216,580 BUX | 8.9% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.15× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $505 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%Restricted 19.0%Classified 19.0%Mil Spec Grade 30.0%Industrial Grade 31.0%best hit $599 (1.19x)