Nautical Nebula Set
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.38
28,950 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $15.64 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.25%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $349 581,250 BUX | 22.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $124 205,917 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $119 198,620 BUX | 15.2% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $38.60 64,307 BUX | 7.4% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $36.62 61,008 BUX | 23.4% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $4.74 7,896 BUX | 4.5% | 31 | 22.8 | 1.36× |
| StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $4.27 7,113 BUX | 1.4% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| MAG-7 | Seabird (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $2.79 4,648 BUX | 3.9% | 23 | 33.4 | 0.69× |
| G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $2.34 3,898 BUX | 6.0% | 67 | 60.8 | 1.10× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$17.3828,950 BUX$36.6261,008 BUX2.11x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$17.3828,950 BUX$4.747,896 BUX0.27x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$17.3828,950 BUX$36.6261,008 BUX2.11x
MAG-7 | Seabird (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer GradeKronerkongen$17.3828,950 BUX$2.794,648 BUX0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $17.38 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.0%covert knife 4.0%pink 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%Consumer Grade 22.0%restricted 40.0%best hit —