Firewall Breach

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.35

7,246 BUX

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $3.91 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.03%

436 openings, odds method

Variance

5.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

78.56%±30.61218 openings

30 days

80.03%±21.65436 openings

since tracking started

80.03%±21.65436 openings

-0.5%131.8%264.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	37.29%±226.0	—	odds
7d	218	78.56%±30.6	−0.7σ	odds
30d	436	80.03%±21.6	−0.9σ	odds
All	436	80.03%±21.6	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 436 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$64.42 107,323 BUX	32.9%	6	8.7	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$27.21 45,331 BUX	20.9%	11	13.1	0.84×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$13.00 21,658 BUX	16.6%	27	21.8	1.24×
P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.65 6,080 BUX	7.5%	36	34.9	1.03×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$2.67 4,448 BUX	5.5%	18	34.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$1.30 2,165 BUX	3.3%	50	43.6	1.15×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Plume (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	12.0%	$1.26 2,099 BUX	3.9%	53	52.3	1.01×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	27.0%	$0.77 1,282 BUX	5.3%	132	117.7	1.12×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	25.0%	$0.66 1,099 BUX	4.2%	103	109.0	0.94×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$4.357,246 BUX$3.656,080 BUX0.84x22h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.357,246 BUX$0.771,282 BUX0.18x22h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictednFGwau$4.357,246 BUX$1.302,165 BUX0.30x22h

StatTrak™ Nova | Plume (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.357,246 BUX$1.262,099 BUX0.29x1d

P90 | Desert Warfare (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$4.357,246 BUX$2.674,448 BUX0.61x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.357,246 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.15x1d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradezaibas22$4.357,246 BUX$0.771,282 BUX0.18x1d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$4.357,246 BUX$64.42107,323 BUX14.81x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.357,246 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.15x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:48 UTC	$4.35	89.99%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 2.0%classified 28.0%pink 5.0%restricted 18.0%milspec 8.0%Mil Spec Grade 39.0%best hit —