Cosmic Encounter

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.61

37,674 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $20.35 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.90%

198 openings, odds method

Variance

39.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

51.20%±93.30172 openings

30 days

53.90%±86.96198 openings

since tracking started

53.90%±86.96198 openings

-0.5%137.5%275.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	81.44%±193.5	—	odds
7d	172	51.20%±93.3	−0.8σ	odds
30d	198	53.90%±87.0	−0.8σ	odds
All	198	53.90%±87.0	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 250	$2,203 3,670,631 BUX	43.3%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$128 213,647 BUX	32.1%	12	10.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$21.47 35,769 BUX	10.5%	15	19.8	0.76×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$18.58 30,954 BUX	11.0%	23	23.8	0.97×
Sticker \| Space Soldiers \| London 2018sticker · High Grade	22.5%	$1.38 2,299 BUX	1.5%	48	44.6	1.08×
Sticker \| Space Marine (Holo)sticker · Remarkable	23.0%	$0.90 1,499 BUX	1.0%	39	45.5	0.86×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	27.0%	$0.39 649 BUX	0.5%	61	53.5	1.14×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018sticker · High Grade$22.6137,674 BUX$1.382,299 BUX0.06x14h

M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$22.6137,674 BUX$128213,647 BUX5.67x14h

Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018sticker · High Grade$22.6137,674 BUX$1.382,299 BUX0.06x14h

Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018sticker · High GradeKronerkongen$22.6137,674 BUX$1.382,299 BUX0.06x14h

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$22.6137,674 BUX$0.39649 BUX0.02x14h

Sticker | Space Marine (Holo)sticker · RemarkableKronerkongen$22.6137,674 BUX$0.901,499 BUX0.04x14h

Sticker | Space Marine (Holo)sticker · Remarkable$22.6137,674 BUX$0.901,499 BUX0.04x14h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$22.6137,674 BUX$18.5830,954 BUX0.82x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:48 UTC	$22.61	90.00%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.4%covert 5.1%restricted 10.0%classified 12.0%High Grade 22.5%Remarkable 23.0%Restricted 27.0%best hit —