Chain Reaction Repository
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.88
23,124 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.49 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
33.10%
296 openings, odds method
Variance
113.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 296 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 333 | $2,688 4,478,791 BUX | 64.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 59 | $111 185,559 BUX | 15.2% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $50.54 84,199 BUX | 8.1% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 25 | $11.35 18,909 BUX | 3.6% | 8 | 11.8 | 0.68× |
| Nuke Pinpin · high | 1 in 17 | $4.54 7,563 BUX | 2.2% | 20 | 17.8 | 1.13× |
| Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 14 | $3.43 5,714 BUX | 1.9% | 14 | 20.7 | 0.68× |
| SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Well-Worn)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $1.62 2,698 BUX | 1.3% | 35 | 29.6 | 1.18× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $1.53 2,548 BUX | 1.3% | 28 | 32.6 | 0.86× |
| Sticker | Toxicsticker · blue | 25.0% | $0.47 783 BUX | 0.9% | 78 | 74.0 | 1.05× |
| AUG | Plague (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 33.0% | $0.33 549 BUX | 0.9% | 100 | 97.7 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $13.88 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.3%Legendary 1.7%classified 2.0%red 4.0%high 6.0%mil spec 7.0%Uncommon 10.0%industrial 11.0%blue 25.0%#4b69ff 33.0%best hit —