Bit Blitz
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.24
22,066 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.92 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.25%
25 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 25 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $390 649,973 BUX | 32.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 1 in 25 | $44.31 73,820 BUX | 14.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 13 | $22.20 36,985 BUX | 14.9% | 6 | 2.0 | 3.00× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $15.12 25,189 BUX | 15.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 18.0% | $8.67 14,444 BUX | 13.1% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 27.0% | $2.99 4,981 BUX | 6.8% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $0.96 1,599 BUX | 2.4% | 3 | 7.5 | 0.40× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient$13.2422,066 BUX$44.3173,820 BUX3.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $13.24 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.0%Ancient 4.0%red 8.0%remarkable 18.0%pink 27.0%classified 30.0%best hit —