Phantom Haze
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.33
50,531 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.30 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.43%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
19.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 25.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 167 | $885 1,474,826 BUX | 19.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $199 331,300 BUX | 14.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 25 | $97.22 161,968 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 22 | $97.20 161,935 BUX | 16.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 16.0% | $10.80 17,992 BUX | 6.3% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic | 21.0% | $2.53 4,214 BUX | 1.9% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 24.0% | $1.80 2,998 BUX | 1.6% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 27.5% | $0.34 566 BUX | 0.3% | 12 | 8.8 | 1.36× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.3350,531 BUX$0.34566 BUX0.01x
Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticCaetanomaster$30.3350,531 BUX$2.534,214 BUX0.08x
Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.3350,531 BUX$0.34566 BUX0.01x
Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$30.3350,531 BUX$0.34566 BUX0.01x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$30.3350,531 BUX$199331,300 BUX6.56x
Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Gradeuser-6b253c$30.3350,531 BUX$0.34566 BUX0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $30.33 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%epic 0.6%covert knife 10.5%mil spec 40.0%exotic 21.0%Mil Spec Grade 27.5%best hit —