Holo Spectrum Treasure
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.04
6,728 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.63 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.80%
427 openings, odds method
Variance
15.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston 2018 Legends (Holo-Foil)other · Base Grade | 1 in 200 | $217 360,788 BUX | 29.8% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | FaZe Clan (Holo) | Krakow 2017sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 25 | $20.27 33,769 BUX | 22.3% | 17 | 17.1 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Outsiders (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic | 1 in 13 | $10.53 17,542 BUX | 21.7% | 31 | 32.0 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · exotic | 11.0% | $2.67 4,448 BUX | 8.1% | 52 | 47.0 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | KSCERATO (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · Exotic | 12.0% | $1.96 3,265 BUX | 6.5% | 44 | 51.2 | 0.86× |
| Sticker | Small Arms (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 13.0% | $1.18 1,965 BUX | 4.2% | 60 | 55.5 | 1.08× |
| Sticker | Broken Fang (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 13.0% | $1.11 1,849 BUX | 4.0% | 55 | 55.5 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | shalfey (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · Exotic | 39.0% | $0.32 533 BUX | 3.4% | 166 | 166.5 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | shalfey (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · ExoticLidthyggepågeden$4.046,728 BUX$0.32533 BUX0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $4.04 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedBase Grade 0.5%Remarkable 17.0%exotic 18.5%Exotic 51.0%Mythical 13.0%best hit $217 (53.62x)