Cosmic Intruders
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.29
10,481 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.91%
240 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 240 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $165 274,756 BUX | 29.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $123 204,951 BUX | 21.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 29 | $19.18 31,953 BUX | 11.9% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 29 | $18.29 30,471 BUX | 11.3% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 14 | $4.23 7,047 BUX | 5.2% | 24 | 16.8 | 1.43× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 13 | $3.80 6,330 BUX | 5.4% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.09× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 11 | $2.98 4,964 BUX | 4.7% | 25 | 21.6 | 1.16× |
| Sticker | Space Marine (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 67.0% | $0.90 1,499 BUX | 10.6% | 142 | 160.8 | 0.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$6.2910,481 BUX$2.984,964 BUX0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.29 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 4.5%covert 1.0%#eb4b4b 3.5%pink 7.0%Mil Spec Grade 8.0%Restricted 9.0%Remarkable 67.0%best hit —