Tropical Paradise
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.22
22,019 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.89 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.49%
92 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 92 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $1,627 2,710,415 BUX | 13.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $116 194,022 BUX | 24.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $113 187,624 BUX | 23.7% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $6.91 11,512 BUX | 8.7% | 20 | 13.8 | 1.45× |
| Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 22.5% | $4.67 7,780 BUX | 8.8% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 22.5% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 8.5% | 13 | 20.7 | 0.63× |
| Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 34.9% | $4.13 6,880 BUX | 12.1% | 39 | 32.1 | 1.21× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkablekdeen$13.2222,019 BUX$4.136,880 BUX0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $13.22 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.6%covert 2.5%industrial 37.5%remarkable 57.4%best hit —