Stormy Night
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.78
11,297 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.10 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
137.61%
231 openings, odds method
Variance
19.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $516 858,839 BUX | 16.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $242 403,471 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 143 | $111 184,742 BUX | 12.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $17.86 29,754 BUX | 23.4% | 19 | 18.5 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 15.3% | $6.95 11,578 BUX | 17.4% | 41 | 35.3 | 1.16× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $1.58 2,632 BUX | 5.2% | 59 | 46.2 | 1.28× |
| MP9 | Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 55.3% | $0.50 833 BUX | 4.5% | 108 | 127.7 | 0.85× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.78 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%restricted 0.5%covert knife 0.7%industrial 43.3%Consumer Grade 55.3%best hit $516 (76.02x)