Aurora Borealis
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.88
14,799 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.99 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.62%
175 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 175 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $901 1,501,549 BUX | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $200 333,200 BUX | 5.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $162 269,825 BUX | 20.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 67 | $46.89 78,118 BUX | 8.8% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 67 | $44.71 74,486 BUX | 8.4% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $12.66 21,091 BUX | 15.8% | 16 | 17.5 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $11.53 19,208 BUX | 14.4% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 75.8% | $2.76 4,598 BUX | 26.2% | 139 | 132.6 | 1.05× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $8.88 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.2%gold 1.0%red 1.5%industrial 1.5%Industrial Grade 10.0%blue 10.0%remarkable 75.8%best hit —