Notes of the Mortal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.69
16,141 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.72 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.54%
159 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $311 518,942 BUX | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $301 501,432 BUX | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $46.13 76,852 BUX | 21.2% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 17 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 13.0% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.08× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $18.91 31,504 BUX | 17.3% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet | 1 in 13 | $10.63 17,709 BUX | 9.8% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $9.67 16,110 BUX | 16.6% | 25 | 23.8 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 17.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 8.8% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Rising Skullgraffiti · Remarkable | 20.0% | $1.57 2,615 BUX | 3.6% | 44 | 31.8 | 1.38× |
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 22.0% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 2.7% | 27 | 35.0 | 0.77× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.6916,141 BUX$18.9131,504 BUX1.95x
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$9.6916,141 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.11x
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$9.6916,141 BUX$1.081,799 BUX0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $9.69 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 37.1%extraordinary 0.1%covert 4.0%blue 5.8%restricted 8.0%violet 25.0%Remarkable 20.0%best hit —