Arcane Aura
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.10
23,484 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.69 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
117.42%
47 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 47 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $117 194,588 BUX | 9.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $88.99 148,257 BUX | 17.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $81.48 135,745 BUX | 19.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.13× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 29 | $57.59 95,944 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $29.71 49,496 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $20.12 33,519 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 25.0% | $5.47 9,113 BUX | 10.8% | 15 | 11.8 | 1.28× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 28.0% | $2.47 4,115 BUX | 5.5% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 28.0% | $1.73 2,882 BUX | 3.8% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.84× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grademakarass$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.1023,484 BUX$2.474,115 BUX0.18x
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$14.1023,484 BUX$57.5995,944 BUX4.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.10 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.5%extraordinary 7.5%classified 5.0%Legendary 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 28.0%remarkable 28.0%best hit —