Mountain Passage
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.48
14,127 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.63 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
121.82%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $527 878,231 BUX | 6.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 111 | $94.80 157,936 BUX | 11.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $22.84 38,051 BUX | 44.9% | 18 | 22.8 | 0.79× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 18.0% | $4.80 7,996 BUX | 11.3% | 31 | 27.4 | 1.13× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $4.18 6,963 BUX | 11.0% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Tall Grass (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $3.12 5,197 BUX | 9.0% | 31 | 33.4 | 0.93× |
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 24.0% | $1.83 3,048 BUX | 5.8% | 39 | 36.5 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $8.48 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.1%Covert 0.9%violet 18.0%#4b69ff 20.0%industrial 46.0%best hit $527 (62.17x)