Money Heist

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.67

11,110 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6.00 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.60%

2,078 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.49%±18.32431 openings

7 days

89.58%±11.371,118 openings

30 days

92.60%±8.342,078 openings

since tracking started

92.60%±8.342,078 openings

65.5%84.5%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	431	84.49%±18.3	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,118	89.58%±11.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	2,078	92.60%±8.34	+0.6σ	odds
All	2,078	92.60%±8.34	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,078 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$186 310,425 BUX	3.1%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$165 274,523 BUX	4.1%	3	3.1	0.96×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$35.20 58,643 BUX	19.5%	76	69.2	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$33.90 56,477 BUX	18.8%	74	69.2	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$32.88 54,778 BUX	18.2%	79	69.2	1.14×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$10.87 18,109 BUX	14.5%	157	166.2	0.94×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Terrorist (Holo)sticker · Remarkable	13.0%	$3.64 6,064 BUX	7.9%	241	270.1	0.89×
MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$2.18 3,631 BUX	5.4%	337	311.7	1.08×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	23.8%	$1.36 2,265 BUX	5.4%	509	493.7	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	30.0%	$0.60 999 BUX	3.0%	601	623.4	0.96×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial$6.6711,110 BUX$2.183,631 BUX0.33x3h

Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$6.6711,110 BUX$0.60999 BUX0.09x3h

Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer GradePuzamah$6.6711,110 BUX$0.60999 BUX0.09x3h

Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$6.6711,110 BUX$10.8718,109 BUX1.63x6h

Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$6.6711,110 BUX$0.60999 BUX0.09x6h

Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil specHALAMADRID$6.6711,110 BUX$10.8718,109 BUX1.63x6h

Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$6.6711,110 BUX$0.60999 BUX0.09x6h

MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New)weapon · industrial$6.6711,110 BUX$2.183,631 BUX0.33x6h

Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$6.6711,110 BUX$0.60999 BUX0.09x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:48 UTC	$6.67	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%restricted 3.3%covert 3.3%Mythical 3.3%mil spec 8.0%Remarkable 13.0%industrial 15.0%classified 23.8%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit —