After Hours Ambiance
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.03
5,041 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.72 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.05%
1,379 openings, odds method
Variance
79.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,379 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $828 1,379,814 BUX | 30.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 111 | $73.87 123,067 BUX | 24.4% | 20 | 12.4 | 1.61× |
| AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 25 | $5.54 9,229 BUX | 8.1% | 64 | 55.2 | 1.16× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $3.42 5,697 BUX | 6.3% | 75 | 69.0 | 1.09× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $1.56 2,598 BUX | 11.5% | 260 | 275.8 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 25.0% | $1.33 2,215 BUX | 12.2% | 343 | 344.8 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Night (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 45.0% | $0.43 716 BUX | 7.1% | 617 | 620.6 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$3.035,041 BUX$1.332,215 BUX0.44x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$3.035,041 BUX$1.332,215 BUX0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $3.03 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.9%Restricted 29.0%restricted 5.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%Consumer Grade 45.0%best hit —