Solar Flare
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.67
21,112 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $11.41 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.98%
112 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,000 | $525 875,033 BUX | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $153 255,031 BUX | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| SG 553 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 200 | $120 199,203 BUX | 5.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $62.66 104,391 BUX | 22.0% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $34.74 57,876 BUX | 15.2% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $9.83 16,376 BUX | 25.9% | 26 | 33.6 | 0.77× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 60.0% | $4.13 6,880 BUX | 21.7% | 72 | 67.2 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $12.67 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 5.1%covert 0.4%Restricted 0.5%extraordinary 4.0%classified 30.0%mil spec 60.0%best hit —