Elemental Equilibrium
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$77.21
128,637 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $69.49 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.25%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 8.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | KrizzeN (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $236 393,859 BUX | 10.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $217 361,705 BUX | 9.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $96.98 161,568 BUX | 27.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 14.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 30.0% | $45.81 76,319 BUX | 19.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 30.0% | $42.85 71,388 BUX | 18.5% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$77.21128,637 BUX$42.8571,388 BUX0.55x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendaryfazzxn$77.21128,637 BUX$42.8571,388 BUX0.55x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$77.21128,637 BUX$42.8571,388 BUX0.55x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$77.21128,637 BUX$45.8176,319 BUX0.59x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$77.21128,637 BUX$45.8176,319 BUX0.59x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $77.21 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 3.0%covert 33.0%classified 20.0%restricted 14.0%Legendary 30.0%best hit —