Rampant Rage
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.84
63,049 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.06 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.16%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $148 246,234 BUX | 4.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 22 | $91.03 151,655 BUX | 12.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $81.48 135,745 BUX | 12.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $81.19 135,262 BUX | 11.9% | 3 | 1.0 | 3.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $57.37 95,578 BUX | 12.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 12.0% | $42.26 70,405 BUX | 14.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 65.0% | $16.89 28,138 BUX | 32.2% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$37.8463,049 BUX$42.2670,405 BUX1.12x
Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$37.8463,049 BUX$81.19135,262 BUX2.15x
★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryMulli$37.8463,049 BUX$57.3795,578 BUX1.52x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$37.8463,049 BUX$81.19135,262 BUX2.15x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedMulli$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$37.8463,049 BUX$16.8928,138 BUX0.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $37.84 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 25.0%covert 5.0%restricted 5.0%Classified 65.0%best hit —