Mystic Mirage
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.22
18,691 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.10 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.07%
355 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 355 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $502 835,798 BUX | 5.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $460 766,076 BUX | 9.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 50 | $106 176,046 BUX | 20.9% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| Sticker | Cloud9 | DreamHack 2014sticker · High Grade | 1 in 20 | $39.17 65,257 BUX | 19.4% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade | 10.0% | $16.03 26,705 BUX | 15.9% | 30 | 35.5 | 0.85× |
| Mirage Pinpin · exotic | 13.0% | $7.15 11,911 BUX | 9.2% | 44 | 46.1 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.91 11,512 BUX | 10.3% | 54 | 53.3 | 1.01× |
| Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade | 22.7% | $3.73 6,214 BUX | 8.4% | 94 | 80.6 | 1.17× |
| SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 32.0% | $0.59 982 BUX | 1.9% | 110 | 113.6 | 0.97× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $11.22 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%remarkable 2.0%High Grade 5.0%Base Grade 32.7%exotic 13.0%classified 15.0%Restricted 32.0%best hit —