Silversmith's Selection
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.36
18,928 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.23 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.79%
109 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 40 | $117 194,755 BUX | 28.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| P2000 | Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 12 | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 24.9% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| Patch | Metal Silver Demonpatch · Exotic | 10.5% | $18.08 30,121 BUX | 18.6% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.40× |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Silver (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 13.0% | $10.18 16,959 BUX | 12.9% | 18 | 14.2 | 1.27× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $3.79 6,314 BUX | 5.6% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× |
| Souvenir P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 15.5% | $2.82 4,698 BUX | 4.3% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× |
| Sticker | Silver (Foil)sticker · exotic | 16.5% | $1.67 2,782 BUX | 2.7% | 17 | 18.0 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare | 18.5% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 2.5% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeMeow$11.3618,928 BUX$117194,755 BUX10.29x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Silver (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$11.3618,928 BUX$10.1816,959 BUX0.90x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$11.3618,928 BUX$1.362,265 BUX0.12x
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RareCaetanomaster$11.3618,928 BUX$1.362,265 BUX0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $11.36 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 2.5%mil spec 8.5%Exotic 10.5%Industrial Grade 13.0%#4b69ff 15.0%industrial 15.5%exotic 16.5%Rare 18.5%best hit —