Crimson Caper
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,677.91
2,795,402 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,510.12 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suspect's Gold Watch (Gold)other · Special | 1 in 500 | $50K 83,300,000 BUX | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tiara (Tourmaline)other · Covert | 1 in 333 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Anvil (Adamantium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 67 | $9,999 16,658,334 BUX | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Picture Frame (Sapphire)other · Special | 1 in 50 | $9,000 14,994,000 BUX | 11.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Pyramid of Power (Palladium)other · Special | 1 in 33 | $8,995 14,985,670 BUX | 17.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Crystal From An Alien Planet (Lithium)other · Special | 1 in 13 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 26.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ruby-Encrusted Daggerother · Exceedingly Rare | 12.5% | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 15.0% | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rock Of Jasper (Silica Mineral)other · Classified | 57.5% | $246 410,520 BUX | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1,678 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 13.2%Covert 15.3%Exceedingly Rare 14.0%Classified 57.5%