Scorching Secrets
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$360.96
601,353 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $324.86 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anvil (Adamantium)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 200 | $9,999 16,658,334 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stones of Quartz (Quartz Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 67 | $4,371 7,281,750 BUX | 20.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Magic Wand (Uranium)other · Covert | 1 in 29 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 17.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Prism (Adamantium)other · Covert | 1 in 13 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris)other · Special | 1 in 12 | $577 960,960 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bars Of Copper (Metal)other · Consumer Grade | 12.5% | $176 293,130 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire)other · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $135 224,910 BUX | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bronze Selfie Stickother · Restricted | 52.0% | $18.00 29,988 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $361 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 0.5%Classified 1.5%Covert 11.0%Special 8.5%Consumer Grade 12.5%Mil Spec Grade 14.0%Restricted 52.0%