Holiday Treasures
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$362.79
604,406 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $326.51 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
1.96%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
16.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earring (Emerald)other · Restricted | 1 in 500 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Picture Frame (Sapphire)other · Special | 1 in 100 | $9,000 14,994,000 BUX | 27.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rocks Of Jasper (Silica Mineral)other · Classified | 1 in 40 | $2,467 4,109,600 BUX | 18.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Bracelet (Sapphire)other · Classified | 1 in 20 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 13.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Pegasus Prism (Pearl)other · Covert | 1 in 15 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Limited Edition Coin (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 10.0% | $230 383,180 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Small Nugget (Gold)other · Restricted | 15.0% | $47.00 78,302 BUX | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Ring (Ruby)other · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Memento (Moonstone)other · Consumer Grade | 39.8% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $363 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 25.2%Special 1.0%Classified 7.5%Covert 6.5%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%Consumer Grade 39.8%best hit —