Festival of Renewal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$366.06
609,861 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $329.46 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
131.27%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 40 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 20.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Gauntlet of Galaxies (Garnet)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 15 | $1,250 2,082,500 BUX | 24.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 13 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 22.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood)other · Classified | 1 in 13 | $800 1,332,000 BUX | 19.4% | 4 | 0.6 | — |
| Titan Totem (Titanium)other · Special | 11.5% | $300 499,800 BUX | 10.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Chalice (Cobalt)other · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Silver Sunflowerother · Consumer Grade | 20.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| Chocolate gold coin (Gold)other · Consumer Grade | 29.0% | $0.50 833 BUX | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $366 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 9.0%Special 19.0%Classified 8.0%Consumer Grade 64.0%best hit $800 (2.18x)