Serene Waters
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$126.27
210,364 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $113.64 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.29%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
15.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lots Of Precious Stones Of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 400 | $9,112 15,180,000 BUX | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Precious Stones Of Aquamarine (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 133 | $2,101 3,500,000 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rocks Of Turquoise (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 10.5% | $417 694,400 BUX | 38.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz)other · Classified | 12.0% | $161 268,488 BUX | 17.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Amulet (Aquamarine)other · Restricted | 15.5% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 5.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Knife (Aquamarine)other · Mil Spec Grade | 18.0% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 2.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Amalgam (Aquamarine)other · Industrial Grade | 21.0% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 1.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Arrowhead (Aquamarine)other · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $126 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 13.0%Mil Spec Grade 28.5%Restricted 15.5%Industrial Grade 21.0%Consumer Grade 22.0%best hit —