Bubble Wonders
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$206.56
344,133 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $185.91 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.51%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stones of Onyx (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 200 | $7,291 12,147,180 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Magic Wand (Uranium)other · Covert | 1 in 40 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 21.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Titan Totem (Titanium)other · Special | 1 in 14 | $300 499,800 BUX | 11.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| Limited Edition Coin (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 10.0% | $230 383,180 BUX | 12.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Origami Swan (Tungsten)other · Exceedingly Rare | 10.0% | $220 366,520 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Oracle Orb (Obsidian)other · Restricted | 15.0% | $165 274,890 BUX | 13.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Obelisk (Obsidian)other · Industrial Grade | 55.0% | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 10.1% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $207 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.5%Covert 2.5%Special 7.0%Restricted 25.0%Exceedingly Rare 10.0%Industrial Grade 55.0%best hit —