Toxic Traces
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$174.12
290,077 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $156.70 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lots Of Precious Stones Of Citrine (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $2,836 4,725,000 BUX | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Crown of Cosmos (Citrine)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 250 | $2,200 3,665,200 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Golden Sunglassesother · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 200 | $2,100 3,498,600 BUX | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor)other · Special | 1 in 33 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 19.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 25 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 500 Gold Ring (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 20 | $500 833,000 BUX | 16.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Precious Stone of Citrine (Quartz)other · Classified | 1 in 14 | $261 434,340 BUX | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Onyx (Gemstone)other · Classified | 10.0% | $237 395,454 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bar Of Brass (Metal)other · Consumer Grade | 70.0% | $16.60 27,660 BUX | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $174 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 17.1%Exceedingly Rare 0.9%Special 3.0%Covert 9.0%Consumer Grade 70.0%