Haunted Relics
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$114.85
191,339 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $103.36 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
34.44%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oculus of Olympus (Opal)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 40 | $1,800 2,998,800 BUX | 43.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 20 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 31.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 10.5% | $149 248,234 BUX | 15.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Harp (Heliodor)other · Industrial Grade | 11.0% | $40.00 66,640 BUX | 4.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Knife (Aquamarine)other · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 2.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Lantern (Lapis Lazuli)other · Consumer Grade | 16.0% | $11.00 18,326 BUX | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Trinket Tray (Topaz)other · Consumer Grade | 17.0% | $9.00 14,994 BUX | 1.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Rusty Nail (Iron)other · Consumer Grade | 24.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 0.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $115 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 2.5%Covert 5.0%Classified 10.5%Industrial Grade 11.0%Mil Spec Grade 14.0%Consumer Grade 57.0%best hit —