Sea Secrets
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.40
123,956 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $66.96 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.76%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
12.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Stones of Aquamarine (Gemstone)other · Classified | 1 in 50 | $1,891 3,150,000 BUX | 56.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Rocks Of Coral (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 15 | $248 413,360 BUX | 24.5% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| Lots Of Gems Of Aquamarine (Gemstone)other · Classified | 10.0% | $45.80 76,300 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Amulet (Aquamarine)other · Restricted | 10.0% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Knife (Aquamarine)other · Mil Spec Grade | 13.0% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 3.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| Amalgam (Aquamarine)other · Industrial Grade | 14.5% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 1.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Arrowhead (Aquamarine)other · Consumer Grade | 16.4% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 0.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| Fractions Of Coral (Silica Mineral)other · Mil Spec Grade | 27.5% | $0.24 400 BUX | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $74.40 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 12.0%Mil Spec Grade 47.1%Restricted 10.0%Industrial Grade 14.5%Consumer Grade 16.4%best hit —