Pine Puzzle
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.98
104,927 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $56.68 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.01%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Chef's knife (Adamantium)other · Restricted | 1 in 67 | $549 914,634 BUX | 14.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 50 | $375 624,750 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Palace Pendant (Peridot)other · Covert | 1 in 25 | $200 333,200 BUX | 14.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 1 in 17 | $149 248,234 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| Playing Cards (Titanium)other · Covert | 15.0% | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 25.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood)other · Classified | 70.5% | $4.00 6,660 BUX | 5.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $62.98 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 20.0%Restricted 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%Classified 76.5%best hit —