Double-Tap Dilemma
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$59.10
98,459 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $53.19 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.33%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone)other · Special | 1 in 400 | $2,600 4,331,600 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Prism (Platinum)other · Classified | 1 in 57 | $599 997,934 BUX | 19.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Mystical Monolith (Moonstone)other · Covert | 1 in 33 | $240 399,840 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| Pendant (Platinum)other · Restricted | 1 in 29 | $235 391,510 BUX | 15.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 1 in 18 | $149 248,234 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Pearl Prism Pendantother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 17 | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 8.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| Pendant (Pearl)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $35.00 58,310 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| Shards Of Sapphire (Gemstone)other · Classified | 68.0% | $5.63 9,375 BUX | 7.2% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $59.10 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedSpecial 0.3%Classified 75.3%Covert 3.0%Restricted 3.5%Industrial Grade 6.0%Consumer Grade 12.0%best hit —