Metropolitan Mysteries
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.81
56,328 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.43 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.93%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril)other · Classified | 1 in 100 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 32.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Pieces Of Oak (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 13 | $106 176,000 BUX | 26.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| Fountain (Fluorite)other · Industrial Grade | 10.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 9.9% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| Zen Garden (Zirconium)other · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 9.2% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| Gauntlet (Garnet)other · Restricted | 11.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 8.7% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| Sarcophagus (Silver)other · Industrial Grade | 13.0% | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 5.7% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.62× |
| Knuckles (Brass)other · Restricted | 13.5% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 5.3% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.56× |
| Knot (Nickel)other · Mil Spec Grade | 34.0% | $2.10 3,499 BUX | 2.3% | 12 | 12.9 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $33.81 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 1.0%Consumer Grade 17.5%Industrial Grade 23.0%Restricted 24.5%Mil Spec Grade 34.0%best hit —