Nature's Nexus
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.78
81,270 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $43.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
7.55%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
30.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite)other · Exceedingly Rare | 1 in 100 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 61.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Adamantium Featherother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 20 | $143 238,238 BUX | 16.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Wooden ladderother · Mil Spec Grade | 12.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 8.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Zen Garden (Zirconium)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $28.00 46,648 BUX | 7.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Wooden Notebookother · Industrial Grade | 13.5% | $9.99 16,643 BUX | 3.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Small Logs Of Oak (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $5.25 8,740 BUX | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Silver Sunflowerother · Consumer Grade | 19.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 1.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| Plank of wood (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 22.5% | $0.18 300 BUX | 0.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $48.78 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExceedingly Rare 1.0%Consumer Grade 73.5%Mil Spec Grade 12.0%Industrial Grade 13.5%best hit —