10% Knife

A case on 500 Casino, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price
$12.33
20,540 BUX
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
114.59%
284 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
192 openings · below min
7 days
260 openings · below min
30 days
284 openings · below min
since tracking started
284 openings · below min
54.5%110.8%167.0%

Small sample. 284 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h19298.09%±39.7—sample
7d260109.10%±53.9—sample
30d284114.59%±51.9—sample
All284114.59%±51.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalog500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert$12.3320,540 BUX$7301,216,246 BUX59.21x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$12.3320,540 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.01x
★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$12.3320,540 BUX$106175,996 BUX8.57x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $730 (59.21x)