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Quant Case

A case on 500 Casino, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.94
1,565 BUX
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
107.91%
146 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
146 openings · below min
30 days
146 openings · below min
since tracking started
146 openings · below min
-0.5%201.8%404.0%

Small sample. 146 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12167.65%±235.7—sample
7d146107.91%±103.0—sample
30d146107.91%±103.0—sample
All146107.91%±103.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalog500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifexTequ$0.941,565 BUX$70.67117,736 BUX75.23x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLevis$0.941,565 BUX$0.51849 BUX0.54x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.941,565 BUX$3.165,264 BUX3.36x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeLevis$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$0.941,565 BUX$13.7022,824 BUX14.58x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Mechanism (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.941,565 BUX$0.17283 BUX0.18x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $70.67 (75.23x)