NikoGoodOdds

A case on 500 Casino, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1.67
2,781 BUX
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
75.17%
182 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
118 openings · below min
30 days
182 openings · below min
since tracking started
182 openings · below min
42.0%97.2%152.5%

Small sample. 182 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1697.31%±54.5—sample
7d11886.84%±20.6—sample
30d18275.17%±15.2—sample
All18275.17%±15.2—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalog500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Cru1cal | Paris 2023sticker · High Grade$1.672,781 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.06x
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.672,781 BUX$6.8511,412 BUX4.10x
Sticker | Cru1cal | Paris 2023sticker · High Grade$1.672,781 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.06x
MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.672,781 BUX$2.944,898 BUX1.76x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$1.672,781 BUX$0.961,599 BUX0.57x
M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$1.672,781 BUX$0.961,599 BUX0.57x
Sticker | Cru1cal | Paris 2023sticker · High Grade$1.672,781 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.06x
Sticker | Cru1cal | Paris 2023sticker · High Grade$1.672,781 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —