Surfers Standoff
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.27
5,452 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $2.95 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.78%
935 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 935 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $301 501,432 BUX | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 53 | $27.82 46,348 BUX | 17.9% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | ESL One Cologne 2014 (Blue)sticker · exotic | 1 in 13 | $11.98 19,958 BUX | 32.5% | 79 | 74.7 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015sticker · High Grade | 10.1% | $7.78 12,961 BUX | 26.7% | 71 | 94.4 | 0.75× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $1.38 2,299 BUX | 14.1% | 282 | 280.5 | 1.01× |
| MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 50.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 7.8% | 489 | 467.5 | 1.05× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015sticker · High GradeLudomanas$3.275,452 BUX$7.7812,961 BUX2.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $3.27 | 90.01% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 1.9%exotic 8.0%High Grade 10.1%restricted 30.0%mil spec 50.0%best hit —