Coastal Clash
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.58
5,971 BUX
Advertised RTP
88.50%
EV $3.17 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.43%
688 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 688 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez | SEAL Frogmanagent · red | 1 in 100 | $38.61 64,324 BUX | 12.2% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $22.56 37,584 BUX | 14.2% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× |
| Souvenir MP9 | Storm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $6.52 10,862 BUX | 24.7% | 77 | 82.6 | 0.93× |
| Patch | Anchors Aweighpatch · High Grade | 20.0% | $3.83 6,380 BUX | 24.1% | 152 | 137.6 | 1.10× |
| Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $1.61 2,682 BUX | 12.7% | 179 | 172.0 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Great Wavesticker · high | 40.0% | $0.96 1,599 BUX | 12.1% | 256 | 275.2 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 23:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $3.58 | 88.50% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 1.0%restricted 2.0%Consumer Grade 12.0%High Grade 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%high 40.0%best hit —