Seaside scuttle

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.83

8,042 BUX

Advertised RTP

88.50%

EV $4.27 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.65%

318 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

100.72%±21.98217 openings

30 days

94.65%±18.16318 openings

since tracking started

94.65%±18.16318 openings

-0.5%63.0%126.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	39.24%±86.6	—	odds
7d	217	100.72%±22.0	+1.1σ	odds
30d	318	94.65%±18.2	+0.7σ	odds
All	318	94.65%±18.2	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 318 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$32.22 53,678 BUX	22.6%	11	9.5	1.15×
Souvenir P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$27.98 46,614 BUX	32.7%	17	15.9	1.07×
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$11.31 18,842 BUX	18.5%	24	22.3	1.08×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Rio 2022sticker · Exotic	10.0%	$4.22 7,030 BUX	9.9%	32	31.8	1.01×
P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade	15.0%	$1.98 3,298 BUX	7.0%	47	47.7	0.99×
P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	60.0%	$0.66 1,099 BUX	9.3%	187	190.8	0.98×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.838,042 BUX$1.983,298 BUX0.41x2h

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$4.838,042 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.14x2h

P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.838,042 BUX$1.983,298 BUX0.41x3h

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$4.838,042 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.14x3h

P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Gradexsparktec$4.838,042 BUX$1.983,298 BUX0.41x3h

P2000 | Grassland (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.838,042 BUX$1.983,298 BUX0.41x3h

Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · Exotic$4.838,042 BUX$4.227,030 BUX0.87x3h

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Gradexsparktec$4.838,042 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.14x3h

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$4.838,042 BUX$0.661,099 BUX0.14x3h

Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · Exoticxsparktec$4.838,042 BUX$4.227,030 BUX0.87x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$4.83	88.50%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 3.0%Consumer Grade 65.0%blue 7.0%Exotic 10.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%best hit —