Holiday BBQ
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.43
14,037 BUX
Advertised RTP
88.49%
EV $7.46 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.60%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $77.04 128,348 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $55.25 92,046 BUX | 14.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $37.04 61,708 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 13 | $16.15 26,905 BUX | 17.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| 'Medium Rare' Crasswater | Guerrilla Warfareagent · Master | 10.0% | $11.50 19,159 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $5.49 9,146 BUX | 11.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 60.0% | $1.39 2,315 BUX | 11.2% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.35× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$8.4314,037 BUX$16.1526,905 BUX1.92x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeKatteManden$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$8.4314,037 BUX$5.499,146 BUX0.65x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grademakarass$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Souvenir SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$8.4314,037 BUX$1.392,315 BUX0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.43 | 88.49% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 9.0%classified 2.0%Classified 4.0%Master 10.0%Restricted 15.0%Industrial Grade 60.0%best hit —