Paradise Pursuit

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.25

12,084 BUX

Advertised RTP

88.49%

EV $6.42 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.48%

612 openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

83.61%±17.90465 openings

30 days

77.48%±15.60612 openings

since tracking started

77.48%±15.60612 openings

27.0%124.3%221.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	124.20%±96.5	—	odds
7d	465	83.61%±17.9	−0.5σ	odds
30d	612	77.48%±15.6	−1.4σ	odds
All	612	77.48%±15.6	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 612 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$117 194,555 BUX	9.1%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 67	$73.61 122,634 BUX	17.2%	5	9.2	0.54×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$55.08 91,763 BUX	17.2%	10	12.2	0.82×
Patch \| Sunset Wavepatch · remarkable	1 in 17	$16.72 27,855 BUX	15.6%	40	36.7	1.09×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$10.42 17,359 BUX	16.2%	59	61.2	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	20.0%	$6.00 9,996 BUX	18.7%	128	122.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	60.0%	$0.64 1,066 BUX	6.0%	368	367.2	1.00×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.09x18h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$6.009,996 BUX0.83x18h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradekdeen$7.2512,084 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.09x18h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.09x18h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$6.009,996 BUX0.83x18h

Patch | Sunset Wavepatch · remarkable$7.2512,084 BUX$16.7227,855 BUX2.31x18h

Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$7.2512,084 BUX$55.0891,763 BUX7.59x18h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$0.641,066 BUX0.09x18h

SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.2512,084 BUX$6.009,996 BUX0.83x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$7.25	88.49%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%Classified 1.5%Restricted 2.0%remarkable 6.0%classified 10.0%Consumer Grade 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 60.0%best hit —