Sundae Treasure
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.42
10,692 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.78 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.19%
434 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.26% – 125.12%, 434 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 434 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $88.98 148,240 BUX | 15.4% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.84× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $53.21 88,647 BUX | 18.4% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $15.71 26,172 BUX | 21.8% | 46 | 34.7 | 1.32× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 16.0% | $6.96 11,595 BUX | 19.3% | 63 | 69.4 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 20.0% | $3.39 5,647 BUX | 11.7% | 83 | 86.8 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 53.0% | $1.46 2,432 BUX | 13.4% | 224 | 230.0 | 0.97× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$6.4210,692 BUX$3.395,647 BUX0.53x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedMulli$6.4210,692 BUX$3.395,647 BUX0.53x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedHALAMADRID$6.4210,692 BUX$3.395,647 BUX0.53x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$6.4210,692 BUX$3.395,647 BUX0.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.42 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 9.0%covert 2.0%Legendary 16.0%Classified 73.0%best hit —