Party Refresher
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.14
20,218 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.92 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.61%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $110 183,193 BUX | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 67 | $67.28 112,088 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $35.50 59,143 BUX | 13.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 12.0% | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 24.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 17.0% | $12.93 21,541 BUX | 20.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 65.0% | $4.72 7,863 BUX | 28.1% | 24 | 22.1 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$12.1420,218 BUX$12.9321,541 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$12.1420,218 BUX$12.9321,541 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMeow$12.1420,218 BUX$22.3137,168 BUX1.84x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.14 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 4.5%Covert 18.5%classified 12.0%restricted 65.0%best hit —