Tropical Fever
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.21
10,340 BUX
Advertised RTP
88.50%
EV $5.49 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.20%
139 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $46.16 76,902 BUX | 8.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $32.91 54,828 BUX | 24.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.26× |
| XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $19.45 32,403 BUX | 24.8% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× |
| Jungle Rebel | Elite Crewagent · distinguished | 10.0% | $7.87 13,111 BUX | 14.3% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× |
| AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 16.0% | $4.29 7,147 BUX | 12.5% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× |
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 62.0% | $1.42 2,365 BUX | 16.0% | 94 | 86.2 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradekdeen$6.2110,340 BUX$1.422,365 BUX0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.21 | 88.50% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%classified 4.0%Industrial Grade 69.0%distinguished 10.0%industrial 16.0%best hit —